Destructive Katrina:
Is this a harbinger of turbulent tourism times to come?

Our hearts go out to the people of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, where Hurricane Katrina has wreaked destruction, taken untold lives and cast a pall of uncertainty over this entire region.

People are now stretched to their limits as they prepare a recovery scenario that will take monumental long-term reconstruction efforts and billions of dollars. At the same time, tourism is clearly at the epicenter of much of the social and economic losses here, with so many local jobs generated and sustained by tourism spending.

This morning, White House economic advisors characterized Katrina's long-term impacts "as modest". And a national trade article woefully understated the severity to the tourism industry with this assessment: "Hurricane Katrina's impact on the travel business is still being assessed...it obviously forced many flight cancellations, led to the destruction of several casinos and may have implications for future tourism in the Gulf Coast".

The burning question for us today is:

Where, throughout North America, will we not be adversely impacted as a result of this horrific disaster? And what can we do about it?

As the television news brought us harrowing visual images of the destruction from Hurricane Katrina, another parallel story was also unfolding.

It included the energy industry's response with abruptly falling stocks, a corresponding spike in gas prices to more than three dollars a gallon, and the business forecast for rising heating oil in the months ahead that will pinch people throughout the country.

Is this a temporary situation? Will these conditions be exacerbated? Or can we look to the future with renewed optimism that Americans so often muster in times of trouble?

Without the benefit of a crystal ball, we are left with these alternatives:

1. Stay close to the customer through national research—A renewed effort to monitor consumer attitudes—and behavior—is critically important. What will the traveler do in the months to come? How will these issues affect their travel decisions and patterns? The Travel Industry Association should be an excellent resource for your future planning.

2. Do your own homework—It's a good idea to make your own ongoing assessment, too. Visitor centers, hotel reservation services and regional AAA offices can provide anecdotal, directional information for tracking. But more importantly, you should establish a plan to give you projectable data. Internet based customer surveys, for example, are relatively inexpensive and will tell you a lot.

3. Look at the worst-case scenarios and develop a planned response. Are long gas station lines, allocation systems or even unavailability of gas a potential? Yes they are--if you're remotely familiar with the historical problems that occurred in the 70s and the terrible impacts they had on losses of tourism visitation, resulting expenditures and local jobs.

4. Don't go it alone—Share your ideas and concerns with your principal stakeholders and make them part of your planning process. And don't stop there; contact your regional and state tourism office partners and make sure they're addressing the issues, too—because if there are travel downturns, it certainly won't be just a local issue.

HOW TO PLAN

First, you'll want to take a look at successful emergency operating plans, contingency plans and crisis management plans that have been developed by others in recent years.

For examples: The Orlando CVB developed an excellent response plan to respond to potential terrorism issues.

The Public Relations Society of America and the Travel Industry Association of America have developed useful crisis management guidelines.

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THE "WHAT IF" APPROACH

After assessing the potential impacts from all kinds of scenarios that could be imposed on you by a variety of negative issues—both natural and manmade—ask yourself as many "what if" questions as your team can envision.

For example, what would be the impacts if people decided to stay closer to home, traveling just within a day's drive. Would that positively or negatively affect your destination?

What if there wasn't gasoline available from visitor origination points, but at the same time you had high supplies in your area? Would they know it and how would you convincingly advise them?

What if there were other public perceptions that negatively impacted visitation to your destination, such as tornadoes, hurricanes or resulting floods. Would you know people's perceptions and how would you respond?

CASE HISTORIES

For examples: during the last energy crisis of the 70's, the populous northeast United States had an imposed odd-even allocation system at the gas pumps, and with short supplies, the public could only get gas every other day. That resulted in long lines, snarled traffic conditions and the belief that it was best not to travel because of gas unavailability everywhere else.

But less than half a tank away was the State of Virginia—with three out of four stations open (No one ever figured out how that situation had occurred) and providing plentiful supplies to everyone without an allocation requirement. The problem was that the tourism market didn't know that.

A hard-hitting, innovative plan involving media publicity and national business communications outlets was immediately employed to successfully tell the story. And the Virginia travel industry, which relied on weekend travel to fuel more than 40% of its business, was all but spared.

Later, there was a well publicized flooding of the James River, which closed the business district of downtown Richmond, Virginia. In response, the local AAA office received numerous inquiries from people hundreds of miles away, asking if they should cancel their trips, and "was the Skyline Drive (at 3,000 plus feet) still under water?"

Again, the State's contingency communications plan was set in motion without delay and achieved positive results—not just for Richmond, but for all tourism points of interest enjoyed by the traveler along the way.

GATHER RESOURCES

As you continue this "What if" approach, be mindful of the communications resources that need to be apart of your plan—including staff, other community support agencies and an emergency set-aside budget for just such events.

STAY CURRENT

Another important consideration is to keep this plan current and not on a shelf somewhere in your offices.

To that end, you should bring it up for discussion during monthly staff meetings in the future.

IN SUMMARY

These uncertain times call for diligence, open dialogue and discovery.

Good luck in the months ahead, as we hope for an optimistic future—particularly for our friends in New Orleans, Biloxi, Gulf Port and the rest of the Gulf Coast.

And now it's time for us to pragmatically prepare our communities for most travel market impact eventualities yet unseen.

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